HO DO NATURAL GAS AND OIL PRICES AFFECT INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IN G 7 COUNTRICES DURING THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR : BASED ON PANEL NARDL APPROACH

Abstract

Paper applies days data  from 2021:M1-2022:M6, in G7 Countrices, namely US, UK, Japan, Italy, France, Canada, Germany to examines the long-run,  examines the asymmetrics impact of Natural Gas and Oil Prices on Industrial Production in Times of Russia-Ukraine war. We use the Panel Data Nardl approach  by (Shin et al., 2014) and asymmetrical Granger Causility test by (Hatemi-j, 2012).The results of this study reveal that there is a non-linear connection among the variables in the long run. As the empirical results of the Panel-NARDL model estimation shows that the response of Industrial Production to positive oil shocks is greater than the negative shocks. Other result the response of Industrial Production to negative Natural Gas shocks is greater than the positive shocks. According to Hatemi-J (2012), there is a bi-directional causality running from positive shocks and negative shocks to the oil price and natural Gas price to Industrial Production